Russia-Ukraine reconciliation, India is keeping pace with both the Western countries and Russia around the Russia-Ukraine war. New Delhi quickly came forward to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine after the start of the war. Again, even after 9 months of the war, they still did not condemn the Russian campaign. Experts say that since India has good relations with both sides, the country can play an important role as a mediator to stop the ongoing war. Reported CSB News
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a reason for not condemning the Russian operation. He said this has been done keeping in mind the foreign policy and defense issues of India. The country’s foreign minister S Jaishankar also said this month that he is not thinking at all about meeting the needs of ‘others’. Here Jaishankar means Western countries by others.
But as the war intensified, fuel and food shortages increased worldwide. As a result, Delhi has to rethink its position with Russia. Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan last September, ‘I know that the present time is not for war. I spoke to you on the phone about this.’ Modi said at the G-20 summit of the 20 major economies held in Indonesia recently, ‘We have to find a way to stop the war in Ukraine.’ Russia-Ukraine reconciliation
Vivek Mishra, a researcher at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), believes that India is on the verge of changing its stance on Russia. In his words, ‘We have seen for 10 months, India’s interest in mediating has increased due to the cessation of hostilities. This is made even clearer by India’s assertion that this is not a time of war. The G-20 summit will be held in Delhi next year. India’s role in mediating the war there can be strengthened.
How will business with Russia be affected?
Russia has taken India’s concerns into account to stop the war. At the SCO summit in Uzbekistan, Putin assured Modi that he would do everything to stop the war as soon as possible. But at the same time, Putin blamed Ukraine for prolonging the war.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow has been cornered by Western sanctions. In such a situation, Putin wants to strengthen relations with Delhi by increasing trade. He told Modi at the SCO summit, ‘Trade between us is increasing. Thank you for delivering Russian fertilizers to Indian markets. It is eight times higher than before. Hopefully, it will help India’s agriculture sector a lot.”
Ahead of the summit in Uzbekistan, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov also praised the trade relations between the two countries. “In the first half of 2022, we have seen unprecedented growth in trade between the two countries,” he told the Russian news agency Tass. Till July of this year, there have been more than 1 billion dollars in trade between the two countries. Where the trade in the whole year 2021 was 1 thousand 36 billion dollars.
Russia’s relationship with India dates back to the Cold War in the last century. Russia is the largest supplier of arms and crude oil to India among Asian countries. According to data provided by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2011 to 2021, 60 percent of India’s arms imports came from Russia. And 22 percent of India’s total oil demand was imported from Russia in October this year.
According to ORF’s Vivek Mishra, India’s new stance on the Ukraine war will not affect the country’s trade with Russia. In this regard, he pointed to a statement by India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh. Recently, Hardeep Singh said, India has no moral obstacle to buying oil from Russia. Because, as a responsible country, India has to meet its own internal needs. And because the price of products in the world is low, oil has to be bought. So this trade with Russia will continue. Russia-Ukraine reconciliation
How India can play a role in stopping the war?
Russia and China do not have good relations with Western countries. So the West wants to build closer relations with India. The European Union held a trade meeting with Delhi last July. India has signed free trade agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates this year. The country will make similar agreements with the UK and Canada next year.
Meanwhile, the US has increased its defense partnership with India. The US administration has recognized India as one of the key countries in the security of the Indo-Pacific region. Through this, the security relationship between the two countries has become closer.
Many political analysts say that the Russia-Ukraine war has played a major role in increasing India’s importance in the international arena. But Vivek Mishra refuses to accept it. According to him, India has become important in the world because of its economy. The country’s economy has overtaken the UK. India is the fifth largest economy in the world. And these happened before the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, this researcher believes that the Russia-Ukraine war has helped to bring India separately to everyone’s attention. Because India is an ally of Russia and Western countries at the same time. Mishra said, that Looking in this direction, the role that India is playing in the international arena has increased.
There is no indication when the Russia-Ukraine war will end. However, talks between the various parties have increased to end the war peacefully.
According to Vivek Mishra, if the process of ending the war peacefully goes ahead and Ukraine sits at the negotiating table, then the Western countries may call upon India to persuade Russia to negotiate as well. Because India is going to lead the G-20 and the country has a special relationship with Moscow.
Vivek Mishra said that India will continue to act as a bridge in communication between the West and Russia. This position of the country can also play a big role in stopping the war.